Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Varvara Gracheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a7cc77d1b28ca89242eaac0c12e6156a462dd6e44cc913c82012eaf4e3d8ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Gracheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Gracheva | 9c | 3,927$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.6 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc39…e02fbacked Gracheva | 16c | 3,447$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb722…914ebacked Gracheva | 4c | 3,062$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Gracheva | 5c | 2,074$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Gracheva | 6c | 1,860$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gracheva | 5c | 1,400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Gracheva | 8c | 1,320$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Gracheva | 7c | 1,017$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Gracheva | 5c | 1,004$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 219 | 59.4%130 W · 89 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…e04abacked Gracheva | 2c | 797.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Gracheva | 5c | 685.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Gracheva | 4c | 652.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Gracheva | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Gracheva | 6c | 577$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Gracheva | 4c | 568.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Gracheva | 6c | 492.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Gracheva | 5c | 464.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Gracheva | 7c | 316.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Gracheva | 4c | 310$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Gracheva | 7c | 280.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Gracheva | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Gracheva | 6c | 182$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Gracheva | 11c | 166.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Gracheva | 14c | 156.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Gracheva | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Gracheva | 17c | 137.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3e77backed Rybakina | 79c | 99.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Gracheva | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Gracheva | 15c | 87.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Rybakina | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Gracheva | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Rybakina | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Rybakina | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Varvara Grachevathis page
- Rybakina vs. Gracheva: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Gracheva: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Gracheva: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Gracheva: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Gracheva (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.