Olympics · resolved market
Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8a2374b8a5497700eadca909ba22e59158b6b77bde0e07299eaa225c870363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 57c | 1,010$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 45c | 1,003$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 41c | 235.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…552fbacked No | 48c | 206.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…8072backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 39c | 98.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…e8f2backed No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked No | 46c | 76.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 59c | 73.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 46c | 69.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 59c | 63.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Yes | 55c | 58.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 57c | 57.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 44c | 39.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…d259backed Yes | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jiayu Xu (CHN) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke?this page
- Will Apostolos Christou (GRE) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke?No won
- Will Ryan Murphy (USA) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke?No won
- Will Thomas Ceccon (ITA) win Gold in Men's 100m Backstroke?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.