CS2 · resolved market
FISSURE Playground 1: Lynn Vision vs. paiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aba5342983532182a7cce81c3df324ed1a7117a72d9c7a7251d38cd8d66f5eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynn Visionof Lynn Vision, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4047…7293backed paiN | 60c | 8,676$5,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,244.49 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Lynn Vision | 43c | 6,619$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.07 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed paiN | 0c | 4,897$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…025bbacked Lynn Vision | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed paiN | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed paiN | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.83 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked paiN | 63c | 726.14$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.89 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…4f5cbacked Lynn Vision | 50c | 498.59$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.36 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked paiN | 72c | 476.39$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Lynn Vision | 33c | 444$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.48 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked paiN | 69c | 361.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.71 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Lynn Vision | 40c | 336.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed paiN | 69c | 324.64$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…0ccebacked paiN | 50c | 305$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Lynn Vision | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed paiN | 42c | 236.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed paiN | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked paiN | 45c | 219.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Lynn Vision | 55c | 166.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Lynn Vision | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Lynn Vision | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed paiN | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4b…aba8backed Lynn Vision | 33c | 59.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef7…bd03backed Lynn Vision | 33c | 53.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 66c | 47.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…1220backed Lynn Vision | 39c | 43.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7671…0d2fbacked paiN | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked paiN | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.