MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8abefe021c2015f30f5eb1400561a718763904bc26d6ce13ff869b7a74b3ed55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 4,845$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.59 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 3,162$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 2,269$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.72 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 60c | 2,008$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 41c | 731.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 588.6$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 426$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 38c | 304.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 39c | 173$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 17c | 170.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 63c | 167.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 37c | 127.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Under | 63c | 100.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…49f7backed Over | 45c | 88.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 78.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 37c | 76.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 57c | 49.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 60c | 40.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…c61ebacked Under | 60c | 38.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 66c | 30.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 72c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 61c | 19.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.