Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad6e83fa2b992fedec17ff9ae5269ec45ec4b71798a9cffb8931b7d281dcaac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof AVULUS, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,351 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked AVULUS | 33c | 1,348$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.78 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked AVULUS | 41c | 1,268$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.11 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 1,009$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.08 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 2c | 850.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed AVULUS | 13c | 775.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 713.96$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…f142backed AVULUS | 32c | 590$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…00c9backed AVULUS | 32c | 580$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…75a4backed AVULUS | 32c | 580$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…7febbacked AVULUS | 32c | 570$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 304.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…f25abacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd233…fc98backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…d9ebbacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed AVULUS | 51c | 296.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…f955backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f6…7b81backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…b231backed Rune Eaters | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d11ebacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 280$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647c…bb4abacked Rune Eaters | 68c | 270$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 208.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0222…2677backed AVULUS | 16c | 198$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Rune Eaters | 64c | 160.21$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed AVULUS | 30c | 153$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Rune Eaters | 66c | 151.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed AVULUS | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed AVULUS | 34c | 145.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked AVULUS | 35c | 141.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Rune Eaters | 71c | 140.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Rune Eaters | 48c | 123.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Rune Eaters | 66c | 121.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked AVULUS | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Rune Eaters | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 86.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked AVULUS | 19c | 66.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Rune Eaters | 70c | 66.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…4f46backed Rune Eaters | 65c | 58.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 58.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Rune Eaters | 52c | 52.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked AVULUS | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked AVULUS | 34c | 46.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…65c5backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Rune Eaters | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2b…7fc1backed Rune Eaters | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters | 73c | 40.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed AVULUS | 33c | 39.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed AVULUS | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff95…3c1cbacked AVULUS | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Rune Eaters | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked AVULUS | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Rune Eaters | 65c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…9529backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 27.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Athis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerAVULUS won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.