Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ae20cf835fd74983a510fe1776cfd430ee0acdfbf766e5ef6505d09c3377e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc50…9392backed Yes | 55c | 282.62$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 240.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 228.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 205.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.81$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 45c | 155.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 145.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 59c | 122.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 36c | 107.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 99.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 57c | 98.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 24c | 92.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 81.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 20c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 49.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…fe59backed Yes | 24c | 42.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 34.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 33.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 25.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 62c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on July 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.