Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b17eaf96996e69978a02547bdef7676bf29b2074e590a5a7d28a1ce1c6669a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 74c | 6,760$5,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.6 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,507$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 3,094$2,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.7 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 23c | 1,354$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 28c | 1,249$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 73c | 1,204$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.1 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 1,026$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…7551backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Yes | 24c | 290.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 246.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 23c | 219.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 24c | 207.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 26c | 197.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 191$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 22c | 168.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 29c | 145.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 145.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 133.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Yes | 30c | 116.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 17c | 92.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 73c | 87.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 77.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 22c | 66.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…0f14backed Yes | 27c | 48.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 46.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed No | 73c | 36.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 35.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 77c | 29.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.