Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f1167b54b2f79edb9932cc0315ceaaa0684e18ba6230cc489943607b4c64cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 29c | 25,048$7,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,267 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 9,314$6,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 8,748$6,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,521.73 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 3,094$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.44 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 71c | 2,065$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 29c | 1,822$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 1,394$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 31c | 1,032$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.33 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 3c | 466.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 391$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 11c | 291.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 35c | 287.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 256$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 244.39$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 11c | 231.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 79c | 191.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 21c | 189.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 184.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 31c | 174.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…efa4backed No | 63c | 160.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked No | 73c | 154.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked No | 64c | 128.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4743…e157backed No | 73c | 104.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 103.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 28c | 90.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 27c | 82.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 78c | 65.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 64.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Yes | 23c | 59.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a583backed No | 77c | 59.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 50.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 76c | 48.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked No | 70c | 48.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 35.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…e2ebbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…e251backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 79c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.