Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b1803ea1dd21971aaa54b658d9fb9bc976e6ddff59f370a1fc9d81a2f0190c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Powof Luca Pow, Lucas Marionneau
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lucas Marionneau | 38c | 402.71$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Lucas Marionneau | 12c | 300.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lucas Marionneau | 37c | 237.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Luca Pow | 62c | 130.66$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…e5adbacked Luca Pow | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Luca Pow | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Luca Pow | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Luca Pow | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Luca Pow | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Luca Pow | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Luca Pow | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…aea3backed Luca Pow | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…ea33backed Luca Pow | 80c | 28.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 80cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Luca Pow | 62c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Luca Pow | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Luca Pow | 72c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.