Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b2d386240b8754ddcd217b8df404997669cdd4bf9dde592f867b9ed30a37fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 228.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…7505backed Yes | 33c | 104.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 102.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 16c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 90.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 14c | 84.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 30c | 82.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 80.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 39c | 77.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 74.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 15c | 72.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 70.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 18c | 68.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 71c | 63.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 31c | 60.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 58.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 57.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 30.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 76c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 61c | 21.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…ea50backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 20.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 62c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 75c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 71c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.