Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3268600e5d0ce66acc37052be5fee25910d7616a0d9862006768ad6cf2e4cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 18c | 250.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 62c | 150.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 60c | 134.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 46c | 131.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 106.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 99.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 77.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 39c | 74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…cd1fbacked No | 39c | 66.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 57.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 67c | 47.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 41c | 47.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 43.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 44c | 40.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 70c | 40.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 39.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 30.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…de33backed No | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 38c | 29.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 49c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 38c | 26.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 52c | 26.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 61c | 25.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 63c | 25.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…2041backed Yes | 63c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 59c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 69c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.