Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b81e15bf9fe9c34e89cbea6fd59d0937c7563f29cc637a243ebb2a8b8feb6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 23c | 292.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 232.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 31c | 128.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 124.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 124.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 111.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 108.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 75c | 105.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 88.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 88.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 73c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 86.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 16c | 66.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 57.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…a65bbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…2e47backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 80c | 28.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked No | 77c | 23.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 72c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 73c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.