TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,848 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Over45c7,856$3,567 inLost-$3,566.5851756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under54c2,860$1,544 inWon+$1,315.5110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c1,928$1,026 inWon+$901.881,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd6…ce58backed Under57c1,376$779 inWon+$596.42040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over48c1,034$496 inLost-$496.392,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under63c824.98$520 inWon+$305.2412265.6%80 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under57c236.73$135 inWon+$101.7978146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under55c166.53$91 inWon+$75.775,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.991,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.9939351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.9941847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.991,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.9934452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under46c120.36$55 inWon+$64.991,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under46c105.17$48 inWon+$56.7929450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under46c84.14$39 inWon+$45.4423851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under56c65.17$36 inWon+$28.941,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under55c64.87$36 inWon+$29.191,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Under46c52.59$24 inWon+$28.418353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under56c45.99$26 inWon+$20.236746.3%31 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under55c38.81$21 inWon+$17.4731046.5%144 W · 166 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under55c33.04$18 inWon+$14.961,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under55c26.54$15 inWon+$11.9421746.5%101 W · 116 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Under56c20.74$12 inWon+$9.0511854.2%64 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.