MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c101a0aa18a4f7796f101e3219feaf0486b1221c8538ebc801cb241005613c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116c…e162backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 14,743$6,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,634.27 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 11,140$6,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,011.41 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 5,049$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.73 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 2,341$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 7c | 1,766$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 1,265$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.69 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 947.92$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.56 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 652.56$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…fc82backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 430.56$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.06 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Kansas City Royals | 7c | 340.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Kansas City Royals | 7c | 294.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Kansas City Royals | 7c | 291.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf879…820ebacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 261.78$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 48c | 246.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 79c | 242.88$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…768cbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 214.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…8c16backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 212.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 211.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 153.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 149.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 147.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 30c | 102.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 96.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 67.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 66.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 58.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 56.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 56.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 50.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 48.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 45.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 44.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf15f…a199backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 35.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 29.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 28.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,593 | 48.6%774 W · 819 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a01…c0f7backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 28.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 477 | 49.9%238 W · 239 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 20.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 19.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo Run won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.