Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c483f373da5afb05cc34ccf5c124d1051f4d8c32747176387379559e06a48ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SV Darmstadt 98of Holstein Kiel, SV Darmstadt 98
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed SV Darmstadt 98 | 46c | 4,846$2,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.54 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Holstein Kiel | 61c | 3,068$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.3 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Holstein Kiel | 26c | 1,174$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.34 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Holstein Kiel | 65c | 178.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Holstein Kiel | 62c | 128$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed SV Darmstadt 98 | 37c | 112.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Holstein Kiel | 64c | 90.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Holstein Kiel | 63c | 89.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SV Darmstadt 98 | 33c | 83.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Holstein Kiel | 57c | 72.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked SV Darmstadt 98 | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Holstein Kiel | 57c | 50.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Holstein Kiel | 57c | 50.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Holstein Kiel | 63c | 43.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Holstein Kiel | 62c | 38.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Holstein Kiel | 70c | 32.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Holstein Kiel | 62c | 31.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Holstein Kiel | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Holstein Kiel | 62c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Holstein Kiel | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: Holstein Kiel O/U 0.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 5.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: SV Darmstadt 98 O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.