Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a28f1c2be6c5db51b51f958d601fe83f76fe1dbb097ce6da848c758f663dc2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 3,980$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.41 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 67c | 1,362$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.91 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 1,079$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 1,018$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.74 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 530.88$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 53c | 256.49$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 222.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 58c | 184.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 29c | 175.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 66c | 103.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…70c1backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 56c | 92.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 56c | 62.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 52c | 51.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Under | 64c | 46.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 64c | 45.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0cccbacked Under | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 55c | 32.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…f075backed Under | 64c | 19.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: Holstein Kiel O/U 0.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 5.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Holstein Kiel: SV Darmstadt 98 O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.