Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4d9c34f8c8f1897a8380f2aa2f4d96c263a508eebe9c37e86d72bfaad653e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5567…6178backed Yes | 18c | 1,176$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 9c | 409.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 29c | 392.58$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 3c | 389.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 327.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 298.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 24c | 248.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 198.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 26c | 186.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes | 33c | 182.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 180.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 154.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 15c | 151.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 150.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 114.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 26c | 108.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 69c | 108.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 104.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 95.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 14c | 89.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 19c | 85.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…e14bbacked No | 72c | 82.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 19c | 79.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 17c | 71.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 67c | 59.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 39c | 47.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 32.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 30.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 36c | 30.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 71c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.