Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb086929e18a2fcaea06b7e4c22b7e368ace033c1d08f9ca3cb8b2cfbeffbec46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x649e…260fbacked No | 1c | 5,971$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ab…5429backed No | 1c | 5,450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 5c | 546.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 73c | 451.66$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 388.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 328.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 75c | 322.23$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 299.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 53c | 260.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 12c | 237.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 55c | 232.65$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 40c | 230.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 49c | 182.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…e2a7backed Yes | 55c | 172.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 22c | 171.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 121.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 40c | 118.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…2992backed No | 43c | 108.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 104.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 68c | 102.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 77c | 98.9$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 44c | 94.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 79c | 89.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 87.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 81.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 69c | 78.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 75.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 74.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 43c | 66.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 55c | 62.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 53c | 58.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 64c | 57.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 22c | 57.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 20c | 57.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 58c | 57.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 64c | 56.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…064abacked Yes | 42c | 56.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 53.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 64c | 53.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 52.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 40c | 50.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 59c | 50.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…1a16backed No | 39c | 49.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 58c | 46.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…5fc8backed No | 44c | 43.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 40c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 46c | 41.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed No | 52c | 41.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Yes | 41c | 40.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 40.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5947backed No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 37.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 33c | 36.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…bfe9backed No | 52c | 35.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 56c | 34.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x803b…1fefbacked Yes | 57c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 47c | 33.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 33.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 32.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed No | 50c | 31.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 30.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 29.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x620c…1fd5backed Yes | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…528fbacked Yes | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 26.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…0551backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 18.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.