Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe13bfae85519de440a06198b815359776ea2d7c21827a9528e2372205dd0adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 713.2$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 380.31$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 27c | 358.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 309.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 78c | 267.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 236.82$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 205.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 35c | 200.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 184.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 165.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 162.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 147.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 26c | 146.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 18c | 139.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 124.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 118.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 27c | 115.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 69c | 115.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 28c | 106.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 101.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 18c | 87.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 80c | 85.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 35c | 79.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 25c | 75.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 74.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 73.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed No | 73c | 71.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 70.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 33c | 70.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…b5ebbacked Yes | 35c | 66.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 20c | 66.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 19c | 61.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 79c | 60.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…4cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 60.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed No | 75c | 58.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 57.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 51.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 22c | 50.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 75c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…1b4ebacked No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 47.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 22c | 47.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 79c | 43.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 68c | 42.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked No | 70c | 42.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 75c | 40.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…8ae5backed Yes | 55c | 34.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed No | 73c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 27.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 52c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 76c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 20.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 71c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed No | 79c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 78c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…a2e9backed No | 74c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed No | 78c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 77c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5e39backed No | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 80c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.