Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C – Evans vs. Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c80d46a83f0850481f26a8b553e06a2d3e8d683ddc421aefb7fb61f7dcde700
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutetof Evans, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Evans | 35c | 4,546$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Moutet | 65c | 3,973$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.84 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Moutet | 68c | 1,405$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.21 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Evans | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Evans | 10c | 853$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Evans | 30c | 800$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Moutet | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Evans | 7c | 671.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Moutet | 65c | 608.4$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Moutet | 79c | 511.91$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Evans | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Evans | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Moutet | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Evans | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Moutet | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Evans | 32c | 99.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Evans | 31c | 51.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Evans | 31c | 43.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Moutet | 68c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd55…3f72backed Evans | 35c | 30.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked Moutet | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Moutet | 65c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Moutet | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…eb24backed Moutet | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.