Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c8eabb4284d1cbfb5a4eae34e6d46674d6f6603085fefff71aefb3c53a35405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe02…dababacked Under | 46c | 2,103$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 1,465$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.13 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 54c | 1,409$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.31 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,101$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.36 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 851.45$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.19 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 39c | 505.89$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.59 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 212 | 54.7%116 W · 96 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 334.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 36c | 329.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 56c | 314.34$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.03 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 249.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 67c | 124.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 96.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 48c | 88.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 81.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 39c | 80.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 39c | 76.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 49.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 43c | 42.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed Over | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 33.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 43c | 29.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 56c | 27.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | +13.3wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 61c | 27.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 25.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 61c | 23.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 21.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 61c | 20.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 19.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 61c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.