Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9a6b5741aee371655c9f8a729f5fdba931648d6c6630b1ce353fdfd887f2f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof Ivory, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2471…8622backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 1,074$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Team Nemesis | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…d732backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 664.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Team Nemesis | 77c | 603.9$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Ivory | 23c | 600.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.12 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis | 36c | 491.36$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.63 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Ivory | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 19c | 270.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Ivory | 66c | 189.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 135.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Ivory | 57c | 91.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Ivory | 14c | 75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 60.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…265ebacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Team Nemesis | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ivory | 52c | 40.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ivory | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Ivory | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3)Ivory won
- Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.