Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c9d29bdbb16c038802cdfff688a7c05d1a442bf766d59a59cee00db1eda23f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 39c | 3,531$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.38 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Yes | 64c | 2,356$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.52 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 1,675$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 29c | 1,242$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.46 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 978.65$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…878cbacked Yes | 80c | 584.45$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 62c | 466.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.99 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 63c | 387.52$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 64c | 314.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 18c | 194.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 39c | 152.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 137.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed No | 38c | 131.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 61c | 122.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 80c | 112.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 35c | 73.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 64c | 65.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…70bcbacked Yes | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 63c | 57.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…857dbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 37c | 31.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 37c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 62c | 26.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed Yes | 63c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.