AI · resolved market
Will any AI score ≥20% on ARC-AGI-2 by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb0a4f5b25b53fed0a644a808706687e9ae480e580fd5510e67118db301dc4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0fd…e179backed No | 76c | 51,721$39,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,413.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b99ebacked Yes | 24c | 51,721$12,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,413.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 22c | 232.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 191.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 24c | 161.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 17c | 142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 77c | 109$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…cccebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 65.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…47debacked No | 79c | 44.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…3d18backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI score ≥20% on ARC-AGI-2 by June 30?this page
- Will any AI score ≥20% on ARC-AGI-2 by April 30?No won
- Will any AI score ≥30% on ARC-AGI-2 by June 30?No won
- Will any AI score ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2 by November 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.