Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbcfd576919ac54366e0dd65eb652863fa5b3c0e7775ee611958822e40c55ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked PuckChamp | 22c | 11,223$2,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.91 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 2,763$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.01 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise | 75c | 1,595$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.09 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…efdcbacked PuckChamp | 16c | 1,417$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.76 | 194 | 56.2%109 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 72c | 1,395$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.34 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 1,305$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.9 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299b…cdc1backed PuckChamp | 29c | 1,049$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed PuckChamp | 28c | 762.33$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.41 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 749.99$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 706.03$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.51 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed PuckChamp | 11c | 699.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…6019backed RE.Arise | 72c | 661.85$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked RE.Arise | 78c | 627.28$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed RE.Arise | 77c | 490.36$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed PuckChamp | 20c | 460.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp | 28c | 455.65$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 444$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 75c | 379.7$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed RE.Arise | 76c | 332.24$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed RE.Arise | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed PuckChamp | 23c | 239.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked RE.Arise | 73c | 221.34$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a1…e38bbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 204$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 71c | 202.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed PuckChamp | 32c | 189.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 72c | 185.85$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked RE.Arise | 70c | 180.93$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed PuckChamp | 24c | 167.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed PuckChamp | 33c | 140.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed PuckChamp | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 261 | 54.8%143 W · 118 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked PuckChamp | 23c | 96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed RE.Arise | 78c | 94.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 56c | 94.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed PuckChamp | 21c | 90.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed RE.Arise | 75c | 84.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked PuckChamp | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed PuckChamp | 33c | 68.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed RE.Arise | 68c | 66.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked RE.Arise | 77c | 64.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed RE.Arise | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp | 29c | 51.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed PuckChamp | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…44a0backed RE.Arise | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed PuckChamp | 23c | 49.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise | 77c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d9…fa69backed PuckChamp | 38c | 39.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed RE.Arise | 75c | 38.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 25.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed RE.Arise | 73c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed RE.Arise | 75c | 19.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…b78dbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 17.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed RE.Arise | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.