Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72da139219a04aed3f00d230eedb2ea8a6d62b60aa155370f2429635fce3c1bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c1b…ca93backed PuckChamp | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked RE.Arise | 69c | 3,999$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.63 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp | 30c | 3,206$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.64 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked PuckChamp | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed RE.Arise | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.41 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PuckChamp | 23c | 767.29$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…5bd2backed RE.Arise | 75c | 749.78$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.59 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -11.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed PuckChamp | 6c | 714.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a9…fc3fbacked PuckChamp | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked PuckChamp | 25c | 520$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…8bbcbacked PuckChamp | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56%65 W · 51 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PuckChamp | 22c | 327.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked PuckChamp | 21c | 303.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 80c | 275.23$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…b72bbacked PuckChamp | 29c | 269.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked PuckChamp | 20c | 218.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 190.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked PuckChamp | 11c | 166.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 25c | 163.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked PuckChamp | 28c | 102.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked RE.Arise | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked PuckChamp | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8804backed PuckChamp | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed PuckChamp | 26c | 74.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39e2…c00ebacked PuckChamp | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed PuckChamp | 22c | 58.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 125 | 59.2%74 W · 51 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…5facbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 55.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 268 | 48.9%131 W · 137 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed RE.Arise | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…bf0dbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked RE.Arise | 73c | 36.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe080…7feebacked RE.Arise | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed RE.Arise | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…292dbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 225 | 58.2%131 W · 94 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed RE.Arise | 74c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed RE.Arise | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Group BRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs PuckChamp - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.