Commodities · resolved market
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cd0e3607cbce22c2d895d466eb6f16bb4bb78a6c335d17093a144cbe3f7eab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 58c | 4,954$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.4 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 41c | 1,874$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.03 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…740bbacked Up | 71c | 820$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 79c | 687.58$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.74 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Up | 34c | 608.68$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Up | 59c | 565.64$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 49c | 480.33$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Down | 23c | 416.13$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…694fbacked Down | 31c | 400$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…98d2backed Down | 21c | 234.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 42c | 175.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 77c | 160.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…e5bcbacked Up | 73c | 133.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…24c8backed Up | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 52c | 124.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Up | 53c | 103.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Up | 64c | 100.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed Down | 36c | 82.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 44c | 74.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc9…e105backed Up | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…b94bbacked Up | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…c026backed Down | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…48fdbacked Up | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe152…7aa1backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…714abacked Up | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Down | 52c | 47.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…17ddbacked Down | 46c | 28.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…39f5backed Up | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.