La Liga · resolved market
UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf04da50854e0788d35c5839ba0aca01b55780aa7ca078f8c565141c8556c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 52c | 573.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.43 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 518.21$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.97 | 2,347 | 48.5%1,138 W · 1,209 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 516.89$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 425.17$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 379.13$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…d6f5backed Over | 53c | 313.81$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 48c | 283.52$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 228.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…2ab7backed Over | 42c | 199.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 199.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933d…4118backed Over | 45c | 177.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 53c | 124.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 53c | 103.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 54c | 99.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 137 | 50.4%69 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 84.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 82.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 1,577 | 51.4%811 W · 766 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 55c | 56.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 55.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Under | 52c | 53.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 46c | 25.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 53c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: UD Las Palmas (-1.5)Real Valladolid CF won
- UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Las Palmas vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.