Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf40e31edb03b2c6446a16b22e3c165a24ca05a29ccb39f846c581756f4d12a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 28,369$19,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,763.28 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 31c | 19,896$6,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,185.92 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 8,518$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 65c | 4,645$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 25c | 3,171$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.01 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,300$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.23 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 28c | 1,183$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.71 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Yes | 68c | 893$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.76 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 35c | 719$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 17c | 592$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 66c | 401.71$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 4c | 368.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 67c | 299.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 15c | 269.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 79c | 252.51$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 65c | 251$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 64c | 247$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 34c | 197.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 64c | 194$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 29c | 169.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 34c | 112.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 67c | 109.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 63c | 74.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 23c | 65.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 65c | 50.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…f3cfbacked Yes | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 35c | 37.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 37c | 32.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…cf5abacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 64c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…6aa3backed Yes | 66c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will San Diego FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.