CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #20 Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cf50efff67ab48359194945c0bf12b49d9d762c9e9a62f2e671e3f1375854ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MANA eSportsof MANA eSports, Lilmix
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MANA eSports | 76c | 3,443$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.82 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked MANA eSports | 78c | 2,384$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.12 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Lilmix | 22c | 2,265$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.3 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed MANA eSports | 79c | 1,653$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.95 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Lilmix | 21c | 1,481$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…a735backed Lilmix | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 244 | 29.5%72 W · 172 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Lilmix | 23c | 527.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Lilmix | 23c | 514.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 27c | 513.41$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.92 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Lilmix | 22c | 507.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed Lilmix | 21c | 430$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked MANA eSports | 78c | 430$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed MANA eSports | 79c | 411.38$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 274 | 59.5%163 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Lilmix | 5c | 392.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Lilmix | 26c | 373.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed Lilmix | 22c | 373.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MANA eSports | 72c | 261.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lilmix | 23c | 260.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Lilmix | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Lilmix | 21c | 199.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Lilmix | 23c | 150.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Lilmix | 13c | 137$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Lilmix | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lilmix | 17c | 120.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…f0edbacked Lilmix | 22c | 118$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Lilmix | 35c | 113.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed MANA eSports | 78c | 105.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Lilmix | 23c | 100.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed MANA eSports | 75c | 86.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -16.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Lilmix | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…cd54backed MANA eSports | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed MANA eSports | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Lilmix | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked Lilmix | 25c | 59.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked MANA eSports | 73c | 57.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…b0debacked Lilmix | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed MANA eSports | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…df68backed MANA eSports | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…713dbacked Lilmix | 44c | 45.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee5c…2775backed Lilmix | 24c | 42.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked MANA eSports | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed MANA eSports | 79c | 28.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed MANA eSports | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…d1babacked MANA eSports | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed MANA eSports | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 65.4%104 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…2718backed MANA eSports | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed MANA eSports | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…5a64backed MANA eSports | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed MANA eSports | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #20 Group Cthis page
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Lilmix - Map 1 WinnerMANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Lilmix - Map 2 WinnerMANA eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.