Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d03027e6e956db61ba765723a1d51404e958eae5abcc16d946c19e2d4697ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,298$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.51 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 349.18$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 38c | 250.34$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…ec40backed No | 18c | 246.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 33c | 179.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 36c | 167.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 134.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 125.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 37c | 123.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 78c | 118.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 75c | 109.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 90.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…6abfbacked Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 58c | 86.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 84.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 73.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 69.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…e8adbacked Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 66.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 63.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed No | 67c | 59.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 66c | 58.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 32c | 56.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…e34cbacked Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 54.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…2ea6backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 37.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 36.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked Yes | 57c | 35.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5594backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 29.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 35c | 28.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…2598backed Yes | 46c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 66c | 27.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 68c | 25.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 58c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 54c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 78c | 16.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 77c | 13.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.