CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d0b797af40d915aa88523c2ea40ca584ddce8c863176cddb41204a6adeb94af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof ARCRED, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6f1…5729backed Butterfly | 70c | 901.66$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.25 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ARCRED | 32c | 895.45$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.96 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked ARCRED | 5c | 866.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 634 | 57.1%362 W · 272 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Butterfly | 52c | 789.92$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.88 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ARCRED | 17c | 385.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ARCRED | 29c | 285.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed ARCRED | 41c | 204.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a13…0512backed ARCRED | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed ARCRED | 38c | 162.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 742 | 39.1%290 W · 452 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Butterfly | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ARCRED | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked ARCRED | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 921 | 45.8%422 W · 499 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 17c | 93.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Butterfly | 58c | 91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…2ef6backed Butterfly | 69c | 72.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed ARCRED | 30c | 65.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Butterfly | 63c | 59.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 681 | 72.2%492 W · 189 L | +120.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Butterfly | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Butterfly | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…4bc1backed Butterfly | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Butterfly | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.