CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149d28e7f5aaa243c78bd97f670706663b4b34b1aa6b5d466c7f684e91f50b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof ARCRED, Butterfly
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Butterfly | 39c | 49,241$19,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,153.76 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked ARCRED | 61c | 33,704$20,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,559.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked ARCRED | 62c | 20,000$12,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,399.67 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Butterfly | 46c | 11,037$5,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,978.57 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked ARCRED | 61c | 8,434$5,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,132.27 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Butterfly | 71c | 7,130$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.98 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed ARCRED | 60c | 5,894$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.21 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Butterfly | 40c | 3,845$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.67 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed ARCRED | 62c | 2,750$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.5 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Butterfly | 39c | 2,057$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.39 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Butterfly | 39c | 2,027$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.49 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Butterfly | 38c | 1,903$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.6 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Butterfly | 69c | 1,631$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.42 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…bac0backed Butterfly | 61c | 1,630$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.49 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Butterfly | 39c | 1,551$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.5 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed ARCRED | 52c | 1,141$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.16 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked ARCRED | 16c | 1,120$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Butterfly | 38c | 1,110$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.76 | 388 | 41.8%162 W · 226 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed ARCRED | 61c | 999.95$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.97 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Butterfly | 79c | 950.45$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Butterfly | 38c | 921.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.05 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked ARCRED | 62c | 806$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.72 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed ARCRED | 62c | 797.85$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.19 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed ARCRED | 26c | 781.88$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ARCRED | 26c | 730.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.34 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Butterfly | 39c | 700$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked ARCRED | 46c | 692.26$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.44 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7c42backed ARCRED | 44c | 689.51$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked Butterfly | 67c | 589.27$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ARCRED | 12c | 572.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked ARCRED | 50c | 549.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 172 | 40.1%69 W · 103 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked ARCRED | 54c | 514.5$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed Butterfly | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 317 | 61.2%194 W · 123 L | +22.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed ARCRED | 61c | 501.66$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.49 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…76fabacked ARCRED | 61c | 500$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…42dcbacked ARCRED | 35c | 499.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed ARCRED | 57c | 492.95$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Butterfly | 56c | 486.06$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.09 | 758 | 33.4%253 W · 505 L | -48.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed ARCRED | 11c | 463.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 295 | 43.1%127 W · 168 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…faacbacked Butterfly | 66c | 455.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.14 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked ARCRED | 22c | 407.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed ARCRED | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 402 | 47.8%192 W · 210 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed ARCRED | 63c | 381.16$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.13 | 611 | 54.7%334 W · 277 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed ARCRED | 54c | 377.11$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.39 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…88f9backed Butterfly | 37c | 369.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.6 | 470 | 54%254 W · 216 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Butterfly | 38c | 338$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed ARCRED | 20c | 316.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d0…6cbabacked ARCRED | 61c | 316.26$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.46 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed ARCRED | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed ARCRED | 61c | 279.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Butterfly | 40c | 277.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.05 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed Butterfly | 38c | 263$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed ARCRED | 36c | 249.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Butterfly | 43c | 231.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.82 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…64cebacked ARCRED | 37c | 227.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 242 | 55.8%135 W · 107 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked ARCRED | 63c | 224.24$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…8192backed ARCRED | 46c | 205.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Butterfly | 45c | 202.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ARCRED | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed ARCRED | 63c | 197.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e6…9622backed ARCRED | 63c | 197$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.03 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Butterfly | 49c | 182.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked ARCRED | 56c | 177.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…ffeebacked ARCRED | 47c | 167.71$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Butterfly | 35c | 164.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked ARCRED | 30c | 144.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked ARCRED | 11c | 143$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3952backed ARCRED | 11c | 140.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…8930backed ARCRED | 52c | 132.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 31c | 123.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Butterfly | 41c | 122.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed ARCRED | 62c | 120.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…472ebacked ARCRED | 39c | 120.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Butterfly | 50c | 114.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked ARCRED | 53c | 113.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed ARCRED | 45c | 113.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed ARCRED | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed ARCRED | 12c | 105.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Butterfly | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Butterfly | 39c | 104.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Butterfly | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked ARCRED | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 224 | 55.8%125 W · 99 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Butterfly | 45c | 94.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Butterfly | 64c | 93.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Butterfly | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed ARCRED | 59c | 85.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Butterfly | 41c | 84.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked ARCRED | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed ARCRED | 44c | 73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Butterfly | 41c | 72.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked ARCRED | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed Butterfly | 65c | 64.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed ARCRED | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Butterfly | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Butterfly | 39c | 61.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…8804backed ARCRED | 62c | 61.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed ARCRED | 62c | 59.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…5b57backed ARCRED | 63c | 57.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Butterfly | 37c | 55.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…633abacked ARCRED | 55c | 54.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly - Map 1 WinnerButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Butterfly - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.