La Liga · resolved market
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d1d6483ab82f20d1dad151089973c33f18d987b0d6f8ced2a6e352457ef3de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f1…9599backed Yes | 58c | 2,885$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 42c | 2,868$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 43c | 934.77$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.04 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 41c | 933.34$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.52 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked Yes | 59c | 635.59$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 559$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.64 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 59c | 413.73$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 37c | 401.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No | 41c | 362.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Yes | 60c | 339.66$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…4f9bbacked Yes | 59c | 322.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 64c | 217.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 80c | 191.94$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 60c | 127.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 42c | 101.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f3…7d49backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 40c | 71.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 51.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 57c | 45.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…e83abacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…02e3backed No | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d4…1b08backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…b59bbacked Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…51b3backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed Yes | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00af…4e8bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…ee5bbacked Yes | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valencia win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
- Will Valencia vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.