Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d21ac491deac46b7ca97e1b4a658e12baa13208a3c9c3bb2755ae1f267c6b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rapids SCof Los Angeles FC, Colorado Rapids SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Los Angeles FC | 16c | 925.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rapids SC | 77c | 345.86$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…5085backed Los Angeles FC | 44c | 285.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 56c | 224.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles FC | 23c | 201.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 56c | 155.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Colorado Rapids SC | 64c | 154.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Colorado Rapids SC | 80c | 151.73$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…b36fbacked Los Angeles FC | 44c | 145.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Los Angeles FC | 44c | 130.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f19fbacked Colorado Rapids SC | 57c | 77.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…7750backed Colorado Rapids SC | 58c | 67.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…9f09backed Los Angeles FC | 44c | 64.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles FC | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Colorado Rapids SC | 75c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…bb8abacked Los Angeles FC | 46c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Los Angeles FC | 42c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rapids SC | 56c | 21.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.