Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium beat Wales?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3012d5d6fa1edbc3d1aa64b6d14ebdc6dcab5565b10d77a0b49096253283e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8406…0176backed Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 31c | 1,726$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 69c | 1,395$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.29 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 5c | 1,060$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 319 | 45.1%144 W · 175 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…e43fbacked No | 36c | 827.44$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 67c | 720.26$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…acb0backed No | 35c | 574.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…2e74backed No | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 18c | 512.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 32c | 499.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed No | 33c | 455.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 31c | 449.63$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.31 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 64c | 422.29$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.02 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 30c | 401.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 31c | 223$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed No | 34c | 166.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…8267backed Yes | 68c | 146.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 74c | 135.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 32c | 124$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…6dcdbacked Yes | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…eb54backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Yes | 68c | 49.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…e698backed Yes | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c287backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 184 | 17.4%32 W · 152 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…ccdbbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…3d37backed Yes | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…8d58backed Yes | 67c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 79c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium beat Wales?this page
- Will Belgium vs. Wales end in a draw?No won
- Will Wales beat Belgium?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.