Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium vs. Wales end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda65cd428bdf59690f936e1c1eae371f0453a31c146487bc4ccc58299705a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e11…9bacbacked Yes | 22c | 45,420$9,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,992.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 78c | 23,750$18,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 20,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 958.04$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 78c | 680$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 77c | 434.78$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 78c | 70.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 80c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium vs. Wales end in a draw?this page
- Will Belgium beat Wales?Yes won
- Will Wales beat Belgium?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.