NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4085443839777e59ae466be15be48bf618752c87209695235a35721b801cee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Avalanche, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Red Wings | 57c | 7,338$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,155.24 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 43c | 6,774$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.11 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche | 37c | 423.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 42c | 372.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Red Wings | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 43c | 279.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…afbbbacked Red Wings | 57c | 271.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Red Wings | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Red Wings | 63c | 256.67$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Avalanche | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Avalanche | 44c | 158.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Avalanche | 42c | 130.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Red Wings | 63c | 127$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings | 58c | 100.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Avalanche | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Avalanche | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Avalanche | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Avalanche | 45c | 59.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Red Wings | 56c | 58.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Avalanche | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Avalanche | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Red Wings | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Avalanche | 43c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Red Wings | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Avalanche | 43c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Red Wings | 56c | 29.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Red Wings | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…5e07backed Red Wings | 58c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Red Wings | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Red Wings | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Red Wings | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Red Wings | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. AvalancheRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.