NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0c88ad4090147ece734e230acb3b098862a39e793d565d893091678890f52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26c7…d22dbacked Over | 47c | 8,094$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1a…c449backed Under | 53c | 8,020$4,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,769.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…5b4bbacked Under | 53c | 7,831$4,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…3d21backed Over | 47c | 7,752$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,329$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 1,975$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.45 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 999$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.7 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 353$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.38 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 49c | 344.62$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 324$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 276.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 54c | 252$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 214.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 184.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 176.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 50c | 137.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 115.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Over | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 93.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 76.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 48c | 62.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 47.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 46c | 40.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 54c | 39.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 36.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 54c | 29.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 54c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 51c | 26.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…c387backed Over | 47c | 21.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…3a0cbacked Over | 47c | 21.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843f…a78bbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Red Wings vs. AvalancheRed Wings won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.