TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Red Wings vs. Avalanche

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Wingsof Red Wings, Avalanche
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,101,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,126,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101,149 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Avalanche63c333,485$210,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210,095.3656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Red Wings37c327,799$120,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207,123.710840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Red Wings37c132,750$49,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,632.254242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Avalanche36c109,887$39,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,559.3838748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Red Wings36c108,216$39,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,982.9948545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Red Wings64c106,998$68,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,546.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Avalanche63c53,672$33,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,813.4426849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Red Wings56c47,499$26,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,832.491,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Avalanche64c41,909$26,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,793.1461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Red Wings37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9003435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Avalanche34c26,378$9,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,038.921,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche64c23,364$15,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,040.11,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x962a…f14fbacked Avalanche61c20,400$12,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,44410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c64…36e2backed Red Wings39c20,400$7,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,4442100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8b…0f4fbacked Avalanche64c20,312$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Avalanche63c18,000$11,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,339.9256649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2219…e243backed Avalanche63c15,000$9,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,449.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche64c14,065$9,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,026.521,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Avalanche64c12,500$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0008848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Red Wings35c10,928$3,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,117.3361748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Red Wings36c10,123$3,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,478.8415749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Avalanche64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4008252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Avalanche63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.996653%35 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Avalanche63c9,947$6,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,266.5922747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Red Wings80c9,534$7,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Avalanche64c9,375$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche54c8,966$4,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,842.471,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Red Wings35c8,785$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,710.3721036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Avalanche52c7,844$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060.071,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Avalanche64c7,061$4,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,539.7762249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Avalanche29c6,901$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.1939344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Avalanche15c6,872$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Red Wings35c6,500$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,224.981,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Avalanche46c6,450$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,96751452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Avalanche59c6,010$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.116163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Avalanche6c5,664$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.844912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Red Wings53c5,486$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.248955.1%49 W · 40 L+9.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Avalanche64c5,389$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4493348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Avalanche64c5,177$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.282540%10 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Red Wings37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Avalanche64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings54c4,933$2,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,264.073,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche42c4,748$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.691,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Avalanche64c4,621$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.4479350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Red Wings72c4,424$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.147258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Avalanche34c4,297$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.5118344.8%82 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Red Wings77c4,260$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.289636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Avalanche24c4,194$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Avalanche63c4,062$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,567.351,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche64c4,053$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.142,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Avalanche64c3,600$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30483652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Red Wings42c3,533$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.7685250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Avalanche65c3,381$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,181.245955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d43…7791backed Red Wings67c3,358$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Red Wings56c3,325$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.022,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Avalanche64c3,150$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.7518258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2f…936abacked Avalanche64c3,150$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.758664%55 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Avalanche63c3,100$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.1536748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Avalanche63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Avalanche63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Red Wings62c2,933$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.4995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Avalanche64c2,778$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.775856.9%33 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Avalanche53c2,628$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.824259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings66c2,502$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.612,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Avalanche64c2,479$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.668253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Avalanche65c2,423$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57518641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Red Wings64c2,406$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.2514837.2%55 W · 93 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Avalanche64c2,344$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Avalanche63c2,334$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.6416254.9%89 W · 73 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Avalanche64c2,202$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4094339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Avalanche40c2,199$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.3275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Red Wings37c2,162$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.1628152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…a1b6backed Avalanche64c2,150$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Red Wings66c2,040$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.4562951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8402…97f8backed Avalanche65c2,015$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2167…b8a5backed Red Wings35c2,002$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed Avalanche64c1,998$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2794339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Avalanche65c1,960$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2746246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Red Wings37c1,900$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,19724845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Red Wings58c1,834$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.6120150.2%101 W · 100 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Avalanche53c1,829$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.892937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Red Wings37c1,699$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.1518547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Avalanche31c1,527$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.5399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Red Wings36c1,500$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.5760337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Avalanche64c1,500$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9603339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Avalanche67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Avalanche40c1,470$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.86650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8d…a19bbacked Red Wings64c1,409$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Red Wings36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8914940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Red Wings37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3515252%79 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked Red Wings37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.352722.2%6 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Red Wings37c1,351$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.3526551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Avalanche63c1,351$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.1242847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Avalanche38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Avalanche21c1,250$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.543743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche68c1,250$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.4189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Avalanche41c1,232$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003562.9%22 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Red Wings54c1,204$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.6410745.8%49 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Avalanche63c1,200$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Red Wings37c1,200$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7565736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.