Tennis · resolved market
Croatia Open: Ziga Sesko vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d4b8e6e07235bc5610570db8d4789566064451f83d2e1785859638597575812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniel Merida Aguilarof Ziga Sesko, Daniel Merida Aguilar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Ziga Sesko | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 374 | 50%187 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ziga Sesko | 4c | 4,333$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.75 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ziga Sesko | 14c | 4,255$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.52 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Ziga Sesko | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ziga Sesko | 14c | 2,454$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.74 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Ziga Sesko | 15c | 1,200$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 265 | 46.4%123 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Ziga Sesko | 17c | 932.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Ziga Sesko | 17c | 594.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Ziga Sesko | 15c | 576.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…f740backed Ziga Sesko | 13c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | -16.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Ziga Sesko | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Ziga Sesko | 4c | 240.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Ziga Sesko | 11c | 191.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Ziga Sesko | 17c | 182.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Ziga Sesko | 15c | 180.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…e212backed Ziga Sesko | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Ziga Sesko | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Ziga Sesko | 15c | 81.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Ziga Sesko | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia Open: Ziga Sesko vs Daniel Merida Aguilarthis page
- Set Handicap: Aguilar (-1.5) vs Sesko (+1.5)Aguilar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.