MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d64d078432500578ed937da996c44cf16497bc14cccbafd575533652ffa08ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Over | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 45c | 9,972$4,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,484.86 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 46c | 5,660$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.49 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Over | 54c | 3,892$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.68 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,987$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 2,191$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.22 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 46c | 1,800$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…114dbacked Under | 46c | 1,048$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Under | 45c | 350$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 56c | 118.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…b1b6backed Under | 44c | 90.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Under | 45c | 31.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pirates vs. Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Pirates vs. NationalsPirates won
- Spread: Nationals (-1.5)Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.