Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d667b5da494b3c5c76c3d9401fa2ee1e2a1debe1ae398865c6e15d9742a942c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 37c | 5,312$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,713$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Under | 63c | 1,111$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.08 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 15c | 808$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 39c | 415.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 393.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 67c | 147.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 132.29$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 63c | 125$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 66c | 125$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 66c | 124.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 63c | 115$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 98.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 67c | 57.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.