Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6926375f81efb3718f4e36a46538e058cf68545a95347cb20da4b8a9b031df6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 43c | 8,937$3,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 43c | 5,242$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,987.09 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 3,875$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 2,813$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.43 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…70d4backed Over | 57c | 2,333$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 61c | 2,050$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.04 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 57c | 1,619$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.02 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 24c | 1,166$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.85 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 808.05$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.1 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Under | 76c | 611.84$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +568.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 42c | 478.28$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.4 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 48c | 417.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 56c | 348$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.88 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 40c | 345.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 57c | 333.94$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 326.61$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.77 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 298.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 57c | 263.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 44c | 201.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 38c | 179.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under | 57c | 145.14$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 57c | 124.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…c0efbacked Under | 45c | 117.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…e204backed Over | 52c | 113.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 111.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…3045backed Over | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 56c | 99.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 86.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 81.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 46c | 63.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 56c | 54.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 56c | 47.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 56c | 46.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 50c | 42.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…a708backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…31c9backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 46c | 31.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.