Other European Leagues · resolved market
Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9a753f0602d748b9e39f15f4a0fd3c62ad945d92c204dcabbf649286531538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,463 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,301$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.08 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 1,463$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.97 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 550.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.72 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 44c | 336$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 336$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 57c | 175.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 55c | 145$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 187 | 49.7%93 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 43c | 107.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 57c | 107.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 64c | 101.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 99.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 66c | 56.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 57c | 52.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 36c | 32.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)Rio Ave FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.