Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9ead4fc328f6dadb3f86fb036ea9c962c98c06f80af55a839436a831e1e81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 4,331$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.63 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 4,048$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.45 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 72c | 1,791$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 9c | 1,470$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,074$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…4bbcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 68c | 782$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.16 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 3c | 399.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 68c | 343.88$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 342.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.97 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 37c | 297.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 251.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.34 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…d961backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 68c | 230$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 40c | 167.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 30c | 133.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 73c | 42.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 27c | 41.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…3ad1backed No | 74c | 19.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 73c | 18.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-06?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.