Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc0329cb3f4400c300a7fcf21177128b08c507caca47227615de0b51d1656f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 7,218$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.96 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 76c | 1,288$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 4c | 1,082$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 1,041$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.65 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 551$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 522.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 459.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 75c | 340.46$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 17c | 301.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…1bf5backed Yes | 4c | 255.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 236$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 25c | 213.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 192.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…db15backed No | 75c | 174$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 74c | 153.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 25c | 113.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6304backed No | 76c | 103.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 25c | 103.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 25c | 82.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 53.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…eafebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 24.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 76c | 23.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 74c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf681…3ad1backed No | 76c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…ffbfbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 74c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.