Mls · resolved market
Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8daa2484c355bc936cb03d2ae438bdb4d51d79a2f5e395d916e5b3b9eb3ff78b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 17c | 6,090$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.58 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,946$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 18c | 999.14$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 15c | 669.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 16c | 568.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 17c | 387.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 9c | 379.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf318…a8afbacked Yes | 16c | 230.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 132.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…9aa0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.