Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x516f48091a7dbac257123212f28fcfb821aaf232d66f79e4de6ae8ccd823320d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 5,767$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145.96 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 36c | 4,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 38c | 2,128$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.65 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 37c | 2,050$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.5 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,419$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.95 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 65c | 1,273$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.66 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 65c | 613.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 65c | 610.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 38c | 386$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Yes | 65c | 332$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 55cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Yes | 66c | 304.05$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 18c | 298.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 35c | 199.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 65c | 157.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce29…b71bbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 27c | 148$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 108$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…72e3backed Yes | 66c | 105.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 62c | 79.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…e6a5backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…e4f8backed Yes | 61c | 71.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 65c | 55.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…7d12backed Yes | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…274ebacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Portland Timbers win on 2025-11-09?No won
- Will San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.