CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: FURIA vs. Spirit
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8db017b39da4c5d09976fe50db784e45384111ab56f506785d2f28fd80e490bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof FURIA, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FURIA | 12c | 2,656$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.67 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked FURIA | 12c | 2,576$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.9 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked FURIA | 10c | 2,265$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed FURIA | 12c | 1,010$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed FURIA | 39c | 958$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Spirit | 74c | 952.78$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.83 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed FURIA | 20c | 928.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed FURIA | 23c | 722.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Spirit | 79c | 500$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed FURIA | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed FURIA | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Spirit | 46c | 381.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Spirit | 68c | 282.87$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…957dbacked FURIA | 13c | 244.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked FURIA | 11c | 219$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FURIA | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.